#Next fed meeting full#

The median view from a dwindling sample of economists who provided responses on the probability of a recession within one year fell further to 30%, after tumbling below 50% for the first time in nearly a year last month. The economy was expected to expand by 2.0% this year and 0.9% in 2024, according to the poll. economist at Citi.Ī serious economic downturn could justify an earlier rate cut, but that is looking less likely. That means that absent a recession, policymakers are likely to keep policy rates on hold well into 2024,' said Andrew Hollenhorst, chief U.S. 'Tight labor and housing markets present upside risk to inflation. Still, all but five of 28 respondents to an extra question said the bigger risk was that the first Fed cut would come later than they currently forecast. Only one said the Fed would cut rates this year.Īround 70% of those respondents, 62 of 87, had at least one rate cut by the end of next June. Of the 87 respondents who had forecasts until the middle of 2024, 28 put the timing of the first rate cut in the first quarter and 33 had it in the quarter after that. That suggests rate cuts may still be a long way off. That may put the brakes on further declines in inflation, which is not predicted to reach the Fed's target until at least 2025.

housing market correction appears to be over, according to a separate Reuters poll.

House prices and rents were also expected to remain elevated now that a relatively brief U.S.

#Next fed meeting full#

labor market was finally cooling.īut the Reuters poll of economists forecast that the jobless rate would average 3.7% this year and rise only slightly to 4.3% in 2024, suggesting the Fed even then will not be far off its goal of full employment. The unemployment rate rose to 3.8% in August, raising hopes among those who don't want to see another rate hike that the U.S.